A Silver Ticket qualifier for Big's Backyard World Championship.
Deep-field analysis of the 2026 race — ranked by probability of Last Person Standing.
This ranking uses OYP, a Backyard-specific handicapping algorithm built from the ground up for last-person-standing races. OYP explicitly downweights UltraSignup rank % (which rewards fast 50K/100K times) and upweights demonstrated BYU ceiling — the single strongest predictor of who survives deep into Sunday morning. Each runner is scored 1–10 on five axes and the weighted sum produces an OYP score out of 100.
Highest documented backyard ultra yard count. 40+ yards scores 10; 30–39 scores 8; 24–29 scores 7; below 18 drops fast. A 60-yard finish is the strongest signal in this field.
Number of prior BYU / LPS events completed. Pacing, inter-lap rhythm, and sleep strategy are learned skills — 5+ events scores 8, 3–4 scores 6, BYU debut scores 1.
Non-BYU endurance evidence: 100-mile finishes, 24-hour timed mileage, multi-day stage races (Moab 240, Cocodona 250, Vol State 500K). Catches strong engines new to BYU. A 200+ mile stage finish scores 9; 130+ mile 24hr / sub-20hr 100s score 8–9.
Heat fit + travel burden. Holly mid-July is hot and humid. MI locals score 10; OH/IN/WI 8; KY/TN 7; humid FL/TX coastal 6; Canadian interior and Mountain West 3–5.
BYU form decays fast. Recent BYU ≥24 yards or podium in the last 12 months scores 10. Quiet or coming off layoff scores 3. A 2022 result is not a 2026 result.
OYP = (C×3.0) + (R×2.0) + (B×2.0) + (E×1.5) + (F×1.5) — max 100. Tiebreakers: higher Ceiling → higher Recency → MI local.
Kwiatkowski is the clear OYP favorite and the only registered entrant with multiple documented 60+ yard backyard ultra finishes. His 63 yards at Capital Backyard Ultra on March 29, 2026 came just 16 weeks before this race — his form is current and elite. He won Queeny Park 2024 outright at 60 yards and went 64 yards at Big Dog's Backyard 2024, the de facto world championship of the format. No other runner in this field has demonstrated a comparable ceiling. His only real drag is environmental: Virginia summers are humid but Holly in mid-July is a tick more hostile, and he travels in. The tiebreaker weights (highest Ceiling, highest Recency) all favor him.
Yoder is the clearest #2 in the field — a USA national-team selection with a documented 50-yard finish at Bob's Big Timber 2025. He trains in climate nearly identical to Holly (Dundee OH, ~45 minutes south of the course), which is a real environmental edge at 15% weight. The reason he falls behind Kwiatkowski: his Big Dog's Backyard appearances in 2022 and 2023 were both DNFs well short of 24 yards, and his best documented ceiling is 50y, not the 60+ required to match Kwiatkowski. If Kwiatkowski makes a tactical error in the heat, Yoder is the natural LPS — his format repetition and recent strong form are both top-tier.
Southers registered between the April 17 and April 19 snapshots and slots in at OYP #3 on the strength of the most diverse BYU résumé in the field after Kwiatkowski: 35 yards at Ohio's Backyard Ultra 2022 (89.74% age rank, overall 8), 32 yards at Ohio's Backyard 2024, 21 yards at Ohio's 2023, 15 yards at Sky Pilots Ouray BYU 2025 (at altitude), and 29 yards at Ode to Laz 2021 on this exact course. She's been past 30 yards in three separate BYU events. Non-BYU base is the standout differentiator: she completed Moab 240 in 113:45:58 in October 2025, ran Javelina Jundred under 20 hours (19:29:21), finished Vermont 100 in 21:42, and posted a 90.10% age-rank Behind the Rocks 50 in March 2025. UltraSignup profile: F43, 29 races, 16 trophies, 85.19% overall rank. The drag on her score is Recency — six months quiet since Moab 240 — but the Moab effort itself is credible conditioning and the April–May window gives her room for a tune-up race.
Vo won Death at DuPuis outright at 35 yards in February 2026, two months before race day. She is the top female in the field by a clear margin and a legitimate overall podium contender. Florida heat training is an asset at Holly in July — humid-south acclimatization transfers well. The drag on her score is the travel burden and a ceiling below the Kwiatkowski/Yoder tier. Important baseline correction: earlier analysis had her in Brandon Michigan; she is actually in Brandon Florida.
Rochon finished second to Loan Vo at Death at DuPuis in February 2026 at 34 yards. He ties Vo on raw OYP; tiebreakers give Vo the nod on their direct head-to-head from two months ago. Like Vo he is Florida-based (not Michigan — another baseline correction) and heat-trained. He is a real top-5 threat with a current-form BYU performance less than eight weeks old.
Witt went 33 yards at Ohio's Backyard Ultra in 2024 — a durable midwest BYU performance. Plymouth Indiana is the correct location (baseline had him in Plymouth Michigan); that corrects down on the Environment axis slightly but stays within the Midwest humid-summer corridor. Age-prime at M30–39, appropriate ceiling, and form that is steady rather than spiky. A credible top-10 finisher and a real threat to anyone in the top four who falters.
Ordered by OYP score (max 100). Full 67-entrant table with per-axis breakdowns lives in ode-to-laz-2026-independent-ranking.md.
| OYP Rank | Runner | Age Group | Hometown | OYP | Key BYU Signal | LPS Outlook | Local Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Dave Kwiatkowski | M20–29 | Arlington, VA | 89.5 | 63y Capital 3/2026 | 🏆 Predicted LPS | ⚠ Out-of-State |
| #2 | Levi Yoder | M30–39 | Dundee, OH | 83.0 | 50y Big Timber 2025 · 🇺🇸 | Strong Challenger | Near-Local OH |
| #3 | Jessica Southers NEW · v0.3 | F40–49 | Lexington, KY | 79.0 | 35y Ohio's BYU 2022 · Moab 240 10/2025 | Podium / Top Female | KY Heat Parity |
| #4 | Loan Vo | F40–49 | Brandon, FL | 74.0 | 35y 🏆 DuPuis 2/2026 | Podium / 2nd Female | ⚠ Out-of-State |
| #5 | Aryan Rochon | M40–49 | Lake Pan, FL | 74.0 | 34y DuPuis 2/2026 (2nd) | Podium Threat | ⚠ Out-of-State |
| #6 | Anthony Witt | M30–39 | Plymouth, IN | 72.5 | 33y Ohio's BYU 2024 | Strong Contender | Near-Local IN |
| #7 | Julian Long | M30–39 | Okeechobee, FL | 69.5 | 37y Capital 2025 | Contender | ⚠ Out-of-State |
| #8 | Brian Wooden ⭐ | M40–49 | Louisville, KY | 68.0 | 27y Big Timber 2024 · 13 🏆 | You — Deep Run Target | KY Heat Parity |
| #9 | Mark McCaslin | M50–59 | Clarkston, MI | 63.5 | 5 Prior Ode to Laz Finishes | Course Familiarity | 🏠 Local MI |
| #10 | Chris Mikolajewski | M30–39 | Livonia, MI | 61.5 | Vol State 500K · 6 Ode Finishes | Engine Dark Horse | 🏠 Local MI |
| #11 | Jeff Fettig | M40–49 | St. Joseph, MI | 59.5 | 3 Prior Ode to Laz Finishes | Field Depth Veteran | 🏠 Local MI |
| #12 | Shirley McCaslin | F50–59 | Clarkston, MI | 59.5 | 3 Prior Ode to Laz Finishes | Field Depth Veteran | 🏠 Local MI |
| #13 | Timothy Butkiewicz | M50–59 | Kalamazoo, MI | 59.5 | 3 Prior Ode to Laz Finishes | Field Depth Veteran | 🏠 Local MI |
| #14 | Simon Mountjoy | M40–49 | Chapleau, ON | 56.5 | 24y Ode to Laz 2023 | Watch List | ⚠ International |
| #15 | Eric Swanson | M40–49 | Sun Prairie, WI | 56.5 | 3 Prior Ode to Laz Finishes | Field Depth | Near-Local WI |
| #16 | David Carta | M30–39 | Bolingbrook, IL | 55.0 | 3 Prior Ode Finishes · 13 🏆 | Field Depth | Near-Local IL |
| #17 | Hannah Carta | F30–39 | Bolingbrook, IL | 55.0 | 3 Prior Ode to Laz Finishes | Field Depth | Near-Local IL |
| #18 | Lucas Zampieri | M20–29 | Novi, MI | 51.5 | 1 Prior Ode to Laz Finish | Field Depth | 🏠 Local MI |
| #19 | Trevor Adamczak | M20–29 | Manistee, MI | 49.5 | 1 Prior Ode to Laz Finish | Field Depth | 🏠 Local MI |
| #20 | Lukasz Butkiewicz | M<20 | Kalamazoo, MI | 49.5 | 2 Prior Ode to Laz Finishes | Field Depth | 🏠 Local MI |
OYP places you at #8 of 67 — still meaningfully higher than your UltraSignup rank position of #15, even after Jessica Southers' v0.3 insertion at #3 pushed you one position down from the prior #7. The algorithm rewards your demonstrated 27-yard BYU performance at Bob's Big Timber 2024, your 13 trophies, and your three prior Ode to Laz finishes on this specific course. Your profile is balanced rather than spiky: no single axis is elite, but nothing is weak either.
Your primary strategic challenge is the heat and humidity gap: training in Louisville KY in July is comparable to Michigan summer conditions, which gives you an Environment score of 7 — ahead of the FL/TX/VA travelers (Kwiatkowski, Vo, Rochon, Long) and nearly even with the Midwest-local tier (Yoder OH, Witt IN, Southers KY). The purely local Michigan runners still have a small edge in course-specific familiarity, but your three prior Ode finishes mitigate that gap.
Your realistic floor in this field is a solid 24–32 yard performance. Your ceiling, if the race fragments and top contenders drop early due to heat or pacing errors, is a legitimate podium run. The training plan peaks at the right time (Week 10 Big Sim on June 27, 11 loops / ~46 miles) to sharpen for exactly that ceiling scenario.
Kwiatkowski and Yoder control pace through the heat of the day, with Southers, Vo, and Rochon staying close through heat-trained durability advantages. Heat casualties reduce the field from 60+ to 10–12 runners by yard 20. Kwiatkowski's 63-yard base form at Capital (3/2026) carries him past yard 40. Yoder shadows him into Sunday morning. Final: Kwiatkowski LPS ~48–56 yards. Yoder earns Assist.
Kwiatkowski's travel logistics, early-season 63y exertion, or an inter-lap mistake opens a door. Yoder's USA-team format repetition and near-local OH climate fit pay off as conditions compound. Southers and Vo battle for top female with Rochon close behind. Final: Yoder LPS ~42–48 yards, Kwiatkowski Assist.
July heat proves exceptionally brutal. Kwiatkowski and Yoder push early and suffer GI issues or overheating between yards 15–25. Jessica Southers' Moab 240 multi-day engine and Kentucky heat-parity advantage compound through Saturday night. Her Ohio's BYU 35-yard ceiling unlocks under fragmentation conditions and she outlasts Vo by 1–3 yards into Sunday morning. A female wins Ode to Laz for the first time — Southers by 60% of this scenario's weight, Vo by 40%.
Witt, Long, or Mikolajewski capitalize on a chaotic day where three of the top five implode. Course familiarity and Midwest climate carry the winner into Sunday morning. Brian Wooden's Kentucky-heat parity and Ode course experience become real assets if this scenario unfolds — his OYP #8 position puts him in the conversation for a top-5 finish here.