A Silver Ticket qualifier for Big's Backyard World Championship.
Deep-field analysis of the 2026 race — ranked by probability of Last Person Standing.
This ranking uses OYP, a Backyard-specific handicapping algorithm built from the ground up for last-person-standing races. OYP explicitly downweights UltraSignup rank % (which rewards fast 50K/100K times) and upweights demonstrated BYU ceiling — the single strongest predictor of who survives deep into Sunday morning. Each runner is scored 1–10 on five axes and the weighted sum produces an OYP score out of 100.
Highest documented backyard ultra yard count. 40+ yards scores 10; 30–39 scores 8; 24–29 scores 7; below 18 drops fast. A 60-yard finish is the strongest signal in this field.
Number of prior BYU / LPS events completed. Pacing, inter-lap rhythm, and sleep strategy are learned skills — 5+ events scores 8, 3–4 scores 6, BYU debut scores 1. v0.6: weight reduced from 20% — partially collinear with Ceiling.
Non-BYU endurance evidence: 100-mile finishes, 24-hour timed mileage, multi-day stage races (Moab 240, Cocodona 250, Vol State 500K). Catches strong engines new to BYU. A 200+ mile stage finish scores 9; 130+ mile 24hr / sub-20hr 100s score 8–9.
Heat fit + travel burden. Holly mid-July is hot and humid. MI locals score 10; OH/IN/WI 8; KY/TN 7; humid FL/TX coastal 6; Canadian interior and Mountain West 3–5.
BYU form decays fast. Recent BYU ≥24 yards or podium in the last 12 months scores 10. Quiet or coming off layoff scores 3. A 2022 result is not a 2026 result. v0.6: weight elevated from 15% — at 90 days out, current form matters more than historical peaks.
OYP = (C×3.0) + (R×1.5) + (B×2.0) + (E×1.5) + (F×2.0) + CB — max 100 + course bonus. CB = +1.0 OYP for 3+ prior Ode finishes; +1.5 for 6+. Tiebreakers: higher Ceiling → head-to-head in same race in last 24mo → higher Recency → MI local.
Seven profiled contenders below. The v0.10 re-audit moved Yoder (▲88.0) and Vo (▲84.0) and inserted Long (#5) and Wooden (#6) into the top six — the authoritative current order is the Top-20 table below. Card badges show each runner's live v0.10 rank.
Kwiatkowski is the clear OYP favorite and the only registered entrant with multiple documented 60+ yard backyard ultra finishes. His 63 yards at Capital Backyard Ultra on March 29, 2026 came just 16 weeks before this race — his form is current and elite. He won Queeny Park 2024 outright at 60 yards and went 64 yards at Big Dog's Backyard 2024, the de facto world championship of the format. No other runner in this field has demonstrated a comparable ceiling. His only real drag is environmental: Virginia summers are humid but Holly in mid-July is a tick more hostile, and he travels in. The tiebreaker weights (highest Ceiling, highest Recency) all favor him.
A full read of Yoder's UltraSignup history corrects the prior baseline's 50-yard ceiling: his documented maximum is 75 yards at Big Dog's Backyard Ultra 2024 (312.51 mi, Overall #5) — the world-championship format, and the highest documented yard count in this entire field, above Kwiatkowski's 64y and Petterson's 65y. Behind it sit 65y (Capital 2024 win) and 63y (Capital 2023), and seven completed BYU events (Bob's Big Timber ×4 including a 50y win in 2025, Capital ×2, Big Dog's 2024) → Repetition 8. A fresh Mohican 100M, 2nd overall (18:24, May 30 2026) keeps Recency maxed. The re-audit lifts him 85.0 → 88.0, within 2.5 of Kwiatkowski, and he wins tiebreaker 1 (ceiling) if they tie. He trains in near-Holly climate (Dundee OH). If Kwiatkowski falters, Yoder is the LPS.
Petterson is the most consequential single registration since OYP was adopted. 65 yards at Summit Trail Racing BYU on November 22, 2025 sits between Kwiatkowski's 64y at Big Dog's 2024 and his 63y at Capital 3/2026 — measured BYU ceiling is one yard above Kwiatkowski's most recent finish. The supporting résumé is the deepest non-BYU base in the field by a clear margin: 14:38:37 win at Rocky Raccoon 100 (Feb 2026), 17:39:48 win at Grasslands 100M (March 2026), 105.47 mi at Perpetual Motion 24hr (Dec 2024, #1), 283.50 mi at Jackalope Jam 100hr (Feb 2023, #1), Cocodona 250 finisher. Ties Yoder on raw OYP at 85.0 — Ceiling 10 / Rep 3 / Base 10 / Env 7 / Recency 10 — but loses the local-MI tiebreaker (TX → MI travel vs. OH → MI). Slots #3 ahead of the entire Southers / Vo / Rochon tier.
Southers' score is unchanged by the v0.10 re-audit (verified: ceiling 35y, six BYU events) — she slots #7 only because Vo, Long, and Wooden were corrected upward above her, and she loses the ceiling tiebreaker to Wooden (35y vs 38y). She still owns the most diverse BYU résumé in the field after Kwiatkowski: 35 yards at Ohio's Backyard Ultra 2022 (89.74% age rank, overall 8), 32 yards at Ohio's Backyard 2024, 21 yards at Ohio's 2023, 15 yards at Sky Pilots Ouray BYU 2025 (at altitude), and 29 yards at Ode to Laz 2021 on this exact course. She's been past 30 yards in three separate BYU events. Non-BYU base is the standout differentiator: she completed Moab 240 in 113:45:58 in October 2025, ran Javelina Jundred under 20 hours (19:29:21), finished Vermont 100 in 21:42, and posted a 90.10% age-rank Behind the Rocks 50 in March 2025. UltraSignup profile: F43, 29 races, 16 trophies, 85.19% overall rank. The drag on her score is Recency — six months quiet since Moab 240 — but the Moab effort itself is credible conditioning and the April–May window gives her room for a tune-up race.
The v0.10 re-audit corrects Vo's ceiling upward: her documented maximum is 43 yards at Death at DuPuis 2025 (179.17 mi) — above the 35-yard DuPuis win she repeated in February 2026 — moving Ceiling 8 → 10. And her fixed-time base is, on a full read, among the best in the field regardless of gender: a 201.08-mile 48-hour win (Big Hoot, Nov 2025), a 126.45-mile 30-hour win (Bronze Dragonfly, Apr 2026), a 121.5-mile 24-hour win, and multiple sub-21hr 100M wins → Base 7 → 8. Two 2026 victories keep Recency maxed. She jumps 76.0 → 84.0 and is now the clear top woman and a live first-female-LPS contender, not a long shot. Florida heat training transfers to Holly in July; the only ceilings above hers belong to the four projected-podium men and Long.
Rochon finished second to Loan Vo at Death at DuPuis in February 2026 at 34 yards. He ties Vo on raw OYP; tiebreakers give Vo the nod on their direct head-to-head from two months ago. Like Vo he is Florida-based (not Michigan — another baseline correction) and heat-trained. He is a real top-5 threat with a current-form BYU performance less than eight weeks old.
Witt went 33 yards at Ohio's Backyard Ultra in 2024 — a durable Midwest BYU performance, but the v0.10 audit finds it's his only true BYU/LPS event, so Repetition drops 6 → 3. The reason that doesn't sink him: his fixed-time base is excellent and now scored where it belongs — a 130.35-mile St. Pat's 24hr win, a 102-mile Six Days in the Dome 24hr, and 100M finishes (Keys 20:38, Woodstock 19:36) → Base 7 → 8. Net 73.0 → 70.5. A Jackpot 100M DNF (Feb 2026) offset by a sharp Thumb Coast 50M 2nd (Apr). Credible top-10 finisher; the thin BYU-procedural experience is the question mark.
Ordered by OYP v0.10 score (formula unchanged from v0.6; max 100 + course-familiarity bonus). v0.10 is a 102-entrant field refresh plus a full top-of-field re-audit: documented-max BYU ceilings corrected for Yoder (75y), Vo (43y), Long (44y), and Wooden (38y), with Witt right-sized (BYU-only repetition) and the v0.9 newcomers (Melisi, Josh Lee, Seth Miller) re-scored to the same standard. Full 102-entrant table with per-axis breakdowns lives in ode-to-laz-2026-independent-ranking.md.
| OYP Rank | Runner | Age Group | Hometown | OYP | Key BYU Signal | LPS Outlook | Local Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Dave Kwiatkowski | M20–29 | Arlington, VA | 90.5 | 64y Big Dog's 2024 · 63y Capital 3/2026 | 🏆 Predicted LPS | ⚠ Out-of-State |
| #2 | Levi Yoder v0.10 ▲ 75y | M30–39 | Dundee, OH | 88.0 | 75y Big Dog's 2024 (field-high) · Mohican 100M 2nd 5/2026 · 🇺🇸 | Strong Challenger | Near-Local OH |
| #3 | Nick Petterson | M30–39 | Leander, TX | 85.0 | 65y Summit Trail BYU 11/2025 · 14:38 Rocky Raccoon 100M 2/2026 | 🥉 Podium Contender | ⚠ Out-of-State |
| #4 | Loan Vo v0.10 ▲ 43y | F40–49 | Brandon, FL | 84.0 | 43y DuPuis 2025 · 201mi/48hr 11/2025 · 126mi/30hr 🏆 4/2026 | 🥇 Top Female · Podium Threat | ⚠ Out-of-State |
| #5 | Julian Long v0.10 ▲5 · 44y | M30–39 | Okeechobee, FL | 79.0 | 44y 🏆 WIN DuPuis 2025 · Across Florida 200 win | Podium Threat | ⚠ Out-of-State |
| #6 | Brian Wooden ⭐ v0.10 ▲5 · 38y | M40–49 | Louisville, KY | 78.5 | 38y Ode to Laz 2022 (#2, this course) · 11 BYU events · +1.0 CB | You — Deep Run Target | KY Heat Parity |
| #7 | Jessica Southers v0.10 ↓3 | F40–49 | Lexington, KY | 78.5 | 35y Ohio's BYU 2022 · Moab 240 10/2025 · (ceiling tiebreak ↓ vs Wooden) | 2nd Female · Podium Shoulder | KY Heat Parity |
| #8 | Aryan Rochon | M40–49 | Lake Pan, FL | 76.0 | 34y DuPuis 2026 · Lake to Ocean 100K 🏆 5/2026 | Podium Threat | ⚠ Out-of-State |
| #9 | Anthony Witt v0.10 ↓2 | M30–39 | Plymouth, IN | 70.5 | 33y Ohio's BYU 2024 (only 1 BYU → Rep 3) · 130mi 24hr base | Strong Contender | Near-Local IN |
| #10 | Ellison Ruch | M20–29 | West Chicago, IL | 69.0 | 37y Big Timber 2025 · Lion King BYU 🏆 | Watch List Threat | Near-Local IL |
| #11 | Marek Butkiewicz | M<20 | Kalamazoo, MI | 68.0 | 24y Ode 2023 (age 14) · 4y Ode 2025 · +1.0 CB · 0% win prob ⓘ | OYP overscore (age-14 ceiling) | 🏠 Local MI |
| #12 | Benjamin Melisi v0.10 ↓3 | M30–39 | Live Oak, TX | 67.5 | 30y Summit Trail BYU 11/2025 · 27y Big Tex BYU · Leadville 100M | Contender (2× BYU 27+) | ⚠ Out-of-State |
| #13 | Josh Lee v0.10 ↓5 | M30–39 | Frankfort, IN | 65.5 | 27y Grind on the Grid BYU 5/9/2026 (~10 wks out) · 21:51 Hennepin 100M | Contender (Recency Spike) | Near-Local IN |
| #14 | Mark McCaslin | M50–59 | Clarkston, MI | 62.0 | 5 Prior Ode Finishes · ~11 BYU finishes · +1.0 CB | Course Familiarity | 🏠 Local MI |
| #15 | Chris Mikolajewski | M30–39 | Livonia, MI | 61.5 | Vol State 500K · 6 Ode Finishes · +1.5 CB | Engine Dark Horse | 🏠 Local MI |
| #16 | Jeff Fettig | M40–49 | St. Joseph, MI | 60.0 | 3 Prior Ode Finishes · +1.0 CB | Field Depth Veteran | 🏠 Local MI |
| #17 | Shirley McCaslin | F50–59 | Clarkston, MI | 60.0 | 3 Prior Ode Finishes · +1.0 CB | Field Depth Veteran | 🏠 Local MI |
| #18 | Timothy Butkiewicz | M50–59 | Kalamazoo, MI | 60.0 | 3 Prior Ode Finishes · +1.0 CB | Field Depth Veteran | 🏠 Local MI |
| #19 | David Carta | M30–39 | Bolingbrook, IL | 55.5 | 3 Prior Ode Finishes · +1.0 CB | Field Depth | Near-Local IL |
| #20 | Hannah Carta | F30–39 | Bolingbrook, IL | 55.5 | 3 Prior Ode Finishes · +1.0 CB | Field Depth | Near-Local IL |
The prior baseline had your Ceiling pegged at 27 yards (Bob's Big Timber 2024) and your BYU Repetition at 6 events. Reading your complete participant history corrects both: your documented ceiling is 38 yards at Ode to Laz 2022 (158.33 mi, Overall #2) — on this exact course (Ceiling 7 → 8), and you have eleven completed BYU events (Ohio's ×4, Ode ×3, Perfect PR 2023, Bob's Big Timber 2024, Capital ×2) → Repetition 6 → 10, the maximum on that axis. With your +1.0 course-familiarity bonus that totals 78.5, and the ceiling tiebreaker (your 38y > Southers' 35y) places you at #6 — above Jessica Southers and the entire Rochon / Witt tier.
The honest caveats: your most recent BYU was a soft 15 yards at Capital 2025, well below your ceiling, so your Recency stays at 7 — that's the gap between the documented number and the current-form number, and it's exactly what the training block is built to close. A documented 38-yard runner-up on this course with eleven BYU starts is a genuine top-6 résumé; converting it on July 18 is the work. (Your live UltraSignup page now shows 6 trophies / 34 races — the "13 trophies" figure in older notes was stale and has been corrected here.)
The projected podium is still Kwiatkowski / Yoder / Petterson, but the shoulder behind it was rebuilt by the same audit: Loan Vo (#4, 84.0) jumped on a corrected 43y ceiling and is now the live first-female-LPS threat, and Julian Long (#5, 79.0) climbed on a documented 44y win. You sit immediately behind them at #6, just ahead of Southers (#7) and Rochon (#8). The v0.9 newcomers who briefly outranked you — Josh Lee (now #13, 65.5) and Benjamin Melisi (now #12, 67.5) — were re-scored to the same standard and dropped back below you; both are real deep-run threats on recent BYUs but neither carries a podium ceiling.
Your primary strategic challenge remains the heat and humidity gap: training in Louisville KY in July is comparable to Michigan summer conditions, giving you Environment 7 — ahead of the FL/TX/VA travelers (Kwiatkowski, Vo, Rochon, Long) and nearly even with the Midwest-local tier (Yoder OH, Witt IN). The purely local Michigan runners still have a small edge in course-specific familiarity, but your three prior Ode finishes mitigate that gap and earn the +1.0 course bonus.
Your realistic floor in this field is a solid 24–32 yard performance; your documented ceiling on this course is 38. If the race fragments and top contenders drop early to heat or pacing errors, a legitimate podium run is on the table. The training plan peaks at the right time (Week 10 Big Sim on June 27, 11 loops / ~46 miles) to sharpen for exactly that ceiling scenario — and to bump your Recency from 7 to 8 in the next refresh.
Kwiatkowski and Yoder control pace through the heat of the day, with Vo, Long, and Southers staying close through durability advantages. Heat casualties reduce the field from 60+ to 10–12 runners by yard 20. Kwiatkowski's 63-yard Capital form (3/2026) carries him past yard 40; Yoder — whose 75-yard Big Dog's 2024 is now the field's highest documented ceiling — shadows him into Sunday morning. Final: Kwiatkowski LPS ~48–56 yards, Yoder Assist.
Kwiatkowski's travel logistics, early-season 63y exertion, or an inter-lap mistake opens a door. Yoder's USA-team repetition, near-local OH climate fit, and a documented 75-yard world-championship ceiling pay off as conditions compound — on raw OYP he's within 2.5 points of Kwiatkowski and wins the ceiling tiebreaker. Final: Yoder LPS ~46–52 yards, Kwiatkowski Assist.
July heat proves exceptionally brutal. Kwiatkowski and Yoder push early and suffer GI issues or overheating between yards 15–25. Loan Vo — now the top-rated woman (OYP #4, 84.0) on a corrected 43-yard DuPuis ceiling plus 201mi/48hr and 126mi/30hr wins — rides her Florida heat training and fixed-time engine deep into Sunday. Jessica Southers' Moab 240 base keeps her in the hunt. A female wins Ode to Laz for the first time — Vo by ~60% of this scenario's weight, Southers by ~40%.
Long, Witt, Josh Lee, or Mikolajewski capitalize on a chaotic day where three of the top five implode. Course familiarity and Midwest climate carry the winner into Sunday morning. Brian Wooden's Kentucky-heat parity, documented 38-yard ceiling on this exact course, and eleven BYU starts become real assets if this scenario unfolds — his OYP #6 position puts him squarely in the conversation for a top-5 finish here.